Would Satan Drive a Toyota Prius?

Column by Chris Rasch - Aug 16, 2006

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“Fat, Lazy, Americans.” “I ♥ pollution.”

Such were the slogans that “Billy” Cottrell, a graduate student in physics at Caltech, and two accomplices, Tyler Johnson and Michie Oe, spray-painted onto SUVs owned by several dealerships in Monrovia and West Covina, CA on August 22, 2003.

Cottrell and his colleagues then proceeded to firebomb the dealerships, destroying 125 SUVs estimated to be worth $2.5 million. Cottrell was convicted and sentenced to 8 years in prison. His accomplices remain at large.

Although the firebombing is an extreme example, hatred of SUVs is commonplace in the environmentalist movement. An entire website consists of over 3500 user-submitted photos of people giving Hummers the one-fingered salute.

Due to their large size and low fuel mileage (11 mpg according to EPA estimates), many environmentalists blame Hummers and their drivers for ozone depletion, rain forest degradation, and the war in Iraq. If asked “What would Satan drive?” the Hummer would top most environmentalist's lists.

However, if Satan picks his vehicles by their lifetime energy cost, Satan's sedan might actually be a Toyota Prius.

Many environmentalists choose to buy hybrids, such as the Honda Accord and the Toyota Prius, out of the belief that such fuel efficient hybrids will cause much less damage to the environment. Although still a small fraction of the total market (due to a price premium of $2000 to $3000 more than a comparable non-hybrid), sales of hybrids increased from 95,558 in June 2005 to 116,767 in June 2006.

Yet according to a new research report, Dust to Dust: The Energy Cost of New Vehicles From Concept to Disposal, the lifetime energy cost of new hybrid cars such as the Toyota Prius is 67% greater than the often-vilified GM Hummer.

To reach these conclusions, Art Spinella and his colleagues at CNW Marketing spent 3 years collecting data onall the energy costs — everything from the steel miner’s fuel to the recycling plant’s energy bill — for 311 vehicle models sold in the US. (Most of the models covered were manufactured between 2002 and 2005.) They then summed the lifetime energy cost and divided it by the expected useful lifespan to arrive at total energy cost/mile.

According to the study, a Hummer H3 has a lifetime energy cost $1.95/mile. The Toyota Prius costs $3.25/mile. A conventional Honda Accord cost $2.18/mile versus $3.29/mile for the hybrid version. The most fuel-efficient vehicle was the Scion xB,at a mere $0.48/mile. Most expensive? The Mercedes Benz Maybach, at $11.58/mile. The average energy cost per mile for all vehicles was $2.28/mile.

In order to prevent accusations of bias, the study was self-financed, and no one in the industry was made aware of the study until the results had been published. They assumed that gasoline would cost $3.00/gallon, and all costs were translated into 2005 U.S. dollars per mile.

Why do Hummers use so much less energy than the Prius? It’s true that a Hummer gets much lower gas mileage than a Toyota Prius: 11 mpg vs. 55 mpg. However, the Hummer uses many parts from existing product lines. Therefore, much of the design and tooling costs are amortized over GM's entire fleet of vehicles, not just a single product line.

The Hummer is also made mostly out of steel; the Prius, lightweight carbon fiber. The new carbon fiber construction required new tooling, and new, more expensive techniques for disposal and recycling. Thus, while the Prius may consume less energy on the roads of LA, it may impose higher energy costs in Japan (where it is manufactured) or the breaker yards (where it is recycled).

Critics of the study argue that Spinella did not credit hybrids with a sufficiently long lifespan. The study assumed that Prius only had an expected useful lifetime of 109,000 miles, whereas the Hummer H3 was assumed to have a useful lifespan of 207,000 miles. Spinella points out that Toyota supplied the expected lifetime miles for the Prius. However, he agrees that the Prius may prove to last much longer than Toyota predicts, in which case, the energy cost/mile would be lowered.

He also agrees that as hybrid technology improves, sales volume increases, and the cost of disposal declines, the gap between hybrids and non-hybrids will narrow. Perhaps eventually, hybrids will even best Hummers in total energy cost.

In the meantime, however, if Spinella’s report is right, current Hummer drivers should not feel ashamed to drive their vehicles on environmental grounds.

Further resources:

A podcast interview of Art Spinella, courtesy of theWatt

A critique of the study, on Treehugger.com

Christopher Rasch was born a poor, white child in Idaho. Raised a Mormon, he spent his youth planning to become a god. However, his plans for godhood were dashed when his calculus teacher gave him a copy of Playboy’s interview with Ayn Rand. In quick succession, he became an atheist, a cryonicist, and libertarian. (Mom was mortified.) Today, he spends his time working for a mutual fund, and posting instructions on living in a van by the river to his livejournal.

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